Looking ahead to Georgia's Bowl Scenarios
Posted on Nov 18, 2011 by Ryan Scates |
Photo: Scates/BI
Heading into the final two weeks of the regular season, the 2011-2012 bowl picture is coming into focus. Here is a breakdown of the SEC’s bowl pecking order and a flowchart of Georgia’s postseason options.
For our purposes, we will assume LSU beats Arkansas and wins the SEC West. If Arkansas wins that game, count on the entire bowl system to devolve into meltdown mode, and there is no telling where Georgia ends up should they miss out on or lose the SEC Championship game. We will worry about that if and when it occurs.
Also- For some great insight on the bowl-picking process, be sure to follow the Capital One Bowl’s Twitter feed, which has been very active lately.
SEC Bowl Pecking Order
1. BCS Championship: BCS #1 vs. BCS #2. Prediction: LSU
2. Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA): SEC Champion or at-large qualifying BCS team. Prediction: Alabama
3. Capital One (Orlando, FL): 1st pick of SEC teams after BCS selections. Prediction: Georgia
4/5. Outback Bowl (Tampa, FL) / Cotton Bowl (Dallas, TX): These two bowls “share” the next pick. Usually the Outback Bowl picks a team from the SEC East, as the Cotton Bowl has the first pick on remaining teams from the SEC West, but may pass on Arkansas due to their earlier game at the same venue this season against Texas A&M. Prediction: Outback: South Carolina / Cotton: Auburn
6. Chick-Fil-A Bowl (Atlanta, GA): Prediction: Arkansas
7. Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, FL): Prediction: Florida
8. Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN) / Music City Bowl (Nashville, TN): Prediction: Liberty: Tennessee / Music City: Vanderbilt
9. BBVA Compass Bowl (Birmingham, AL): Prediction: Miss. St. (Kentucky, Ole Miss remain)
Georgia’s Postseason Flowchart
Beat Kentucky and Tech and LSU: This one’s easy – UGA earns automatic SEC Champion berth to the Sugar Bowl..
Beat Kentucky and Tech, lose to LSU: Capital One Bowl. Also Possible: Cotton Bowl. Here’s why: The Capital One Bowl has expressed a preference for selecting the SEC East Champion over a higher ranked South Carolina or Arkansas team that failed to win the division. Georgia could still end up in the Cotton Bowl in this scenario if the Capital One Bowl chooses Arkansas, a choice that may be driven by Cotton Bowl execs who feel that the Arkansas fan base may be hesitant to make a second trip to Dallas after their regular season game against Texas A&M was already played in Texas Stadium earlier this year.
Beat Kentucky, lose to Tech, lose to LSU: Capital One Bowl. Also Possible: Cotton Bowl, Outback. Here’s why: Georgia can lose to Tech and still be SEC East Champions, a credential that is highly valued by the Capital One Bowl committee. However, a season-ending loss to Georgia’s archrival may take some wind of the fanbase’s collective sails. That could be enough for the CapOne to pass over Georgia for Arkansas and leave the Dawgs falling to the Outback/Cotton bowl pick alongside South Carolina.
Lose to Kentucky, Beat Tech: Outback. Also Possible: Gator. Doubtful Chick-Fil-A, Cotton. Here’s why: Georgia’s only shot to the CapOne bowl is through losing the SEC Championship Game. Losing to Kentucky would dash Georgia’s shot at the Eastern Division title and move them down the bowl pecking order to the Outback/Cotton pick. It is unlikely that the Cotton Bowl would break tradition and pass on an SEC West team for a Georgia team that laid an egg against UK with the season on the line. This would leave the Outback Bowl as Georgia’s likely destination. The Gator Bowl is also a possibility here, as the Outback Bowl has a history of choosing local teams (Florida) out of order to ensure a high turnout for the game. The Chick-FIl-A Bowl is also on the table at this point, but is unlikely to pick UGA considering it would be their second game in the Dome and third game in Atlanta of the season.
Lose to Kentucky and Tech: Outback. Also Possible: Gator. Here’s why: See above.
*Correction: An earlier edition of this post erroneously omitted Arkansas from these predictions.
Tagged: 2011, sec, football, sec football news, uga, georgia, bulldogs, dawgs, richt, bulldawg, illustrated, bowls, sugar, sec bowl order, pecking order, bowl procedure, bowl picks, bcs, death to the bcs, playoff, sec championship game 20112012
Comments
You left Arkansas out of your bowl predictions up top...I think arkansas has a good chance of getting the capital one bowl because they have already played in dallas this year (against A&M). I think UGA has a better chance at the cotton bowl because of that. Many experts are predicting UGA to Cotton Bowl.
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